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ERNIE, please use the form on the
linked page. Some were worse than others.
When it takes too long to sell off the old inventory, people get scared
(dropping consumer confidence). The fear results in decreased demand. The
inventory is sold off more slowly. The recession "deepens".
The key to understanding the prosperity of the 90s is that we "fixed"
the inventory problem. With its emphasis on process re-engineering and
Just In Time inventory, the American economy essentially established a
single inventory control system. It was completed during the last real
recession (1991). As a result, all American Companies share a (somewhat
grumpy) single inventory system. Key suppliers manage inventory and
requirements in their accounts throughout the economy.
We got 10 very successful years out of this new distributed system
before the current "bump". Given that manufacturing is a small component
of the economy these days (and an inventory problem is even less
significant than it was 10 years ago), what happened?
We think it was the first real demonstration that the Human Capital
Inventory System is in need of completion. (For that matter, it's in need
of a beginning.) After all, in the worst employment news, 235,000 or so
jobs were lost in the economy. In that exact same month 450,000 jobs were
offered on Monster alone. Our rough estimate of job openings during April
is about 1.8 Million, more than enough to absorb all those workers six
times.. While the layoffs were unnerving (and made other forms of
recruiting take longer), it simply isn't the bad old days.
The demographics are straightforward. The only way to explain the
massive wave of illegal immigration into our cities and suburbs is that
there is plenty of work to go around. There are vastly more jobs in the
economy. and it's getting worse.
In order to effectively manage the deployment of the workforce, we are
going to have to get serious about developing an inventory management
system that shifts the burden of effectiveness from "the unseen hand" (as
it used to be in manufacturing) to the planners and managers who fuel our
economy.
The problem is severe and getting worse. By 2005 or 2006, it will hit
crisis proportions. In those times, there will be engineering, medical and
other professional shortages that make the last couple of years seem like
a trial run. Figuring out the details of human capital management is
critical in the near term.
Look who's gone
local!
There is an established job board making new waves in the online
recruiting industry. CareerWeb.com, a subsidiary of Trader Publishing
Company, is poised for strong growth. Careerweb.com is the online
companion to The Employment Guide, a localized print publication with a
weekly circulation of 3 million papers. Using the Employment Guide as
advertising, Careerweb.com has grown to a sizable site with over 100,000
job searches per day. So why use CareerWeb.com instead of Monster or
Hotjobs?
CareerWeb.com is building a network of localized sites. Recruiters can
post jobs locally. Similarly, job seekers will find only local jobs. The
local site idea is appealing to job seekers who lack the time to search a
monstrous job database, and who are not willing to relocate for a "hot"
job. Jobseekers like that search results are more specific to their needs.
Check out the first three of these local sites at: OrlandoCareerWeb.com, RaleighCareerWeb.com, and ChicagoCareerWeb.com.
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