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[ernie] The Interbiznet ERNIE_00.11.02




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It is better
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Results

(November 02, 2000) The price is going up. The quantity and quality of results are falling. Sounds like a protracted shortage.

November is the time of year when budgets are drawn in all but the smallest and youngest companies. This year's budget discussions will feature some new possibilities. Alumni Networks, hybrid systems, referral programs, job board in a box, recruiting gateways, exchanges and other new categories are hitting the limelight this year.

Meanwhile, the number of candidate aggregators (job boards) continues to explode.

Pity the Recruiting manager who is stuck with a 10% increase over last year's budget. From a relatively fixed pie perspective, choice overwhelms the purchasing power of a lowly manager.

Here's the problem: Recruiting costs are rising rapidly. A budget doubling may well not be adequate to solve the problem of reaching out to scarce talent in a noisy market driven by shortage.

Retailers are giving away automobiles as signing bonuses for holiday help.

Recruiting budgets are heading towards 100% of the first year's salary.

And still, it may not be enough. After all, you simply can't buy what's not on the shelf. Shortages produce weird purchasing behavior and difficult customer expectations. Used to easy availability, customers are surprised and frustrated by rising prices. Vendors, trying to build market share, experience this as cheapness. Really, the market just hasn't been adequately educated about the way things work in a shortage.

Here's how it works.

All that a vendor can offer is a recruiting tool. There are no "solutions" available. (A 'solution' might include a cloning laboratory that produced trained adults at a rate that met recruiting requirements.) In this market, tools all share some interesting characteristics:

  • They produce better results for early adopters. Period. The later adopters will get fewer, lower quality results. Period. This produces the odd effect that established vendors are more expensive while producing lower quality and quality.
  • They take time to learn. All tools work better the longer you use them. Although the vendors don't say so, agreeing to use their tools means getting on a learning curve. Speed is the essence here since a customer is competing for results with other customers in an environment where each new customer decreases the effectiveness of the tool itself.
  • What should be measured is increasing effectiveness against a baseline rather than pure results. These are tools, not answers. 'Here's how much better we are than yesterday' is the proper measurement for tool usage.
  • Experimentation with new tools pays handsome dividends. Customers should be looking for market advantage, not ass covering.
  • The ultimate goal of tool usage is to build a predictable flow of human capital that meets corporate growth requirements. The goal is not to produce these results as a function of last year's budget. That's a losing game in a shortage.
No kidding, it's a war. In a war, one side develops a new weapon and the other side counters it. The arms spiral renders early weapons obsolete almost as fast as they can be developed. The only people surprised by the decreasing effectiveness of a given weapon are the ones who don't realize the seriousness of the situation.

- John Sumser

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