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(January
3, 2001) Imagine a matrix. It's
got functions (from candidate aggregation to payroll) across the top. It's
got company size (and a distinction for non-corporate recruiters) across the
side. The third dimension is a complex description of the workforce in niches
no larger than 25,000 people (probably divided by region and profession). 10 kinds of paying customers times a dozen repeated
functions times 4,000 niches times (at least) three providers per niche.
That's almost 1,500,000 describable combinations of niche, function, region
and customer type. No wonder our industry resists consolidation. Each of the 25,000 people in each niche change
jobs every four years. At a minimum of $10K per job change (which is very
low), each niche represents a potential market of $60,000,000 per year in
cash flow. Simply divided equally among the functions, there's an opportunity
for 12 $5M/ year businesses in each niche. Obviously, the distribution would
be weighted towards processes that require human assistance. At it's simplest, a very conservative
description of the value of our industry, rooted in these numbers, is $250
Billion per year. What the pundits seem to miss is that this sort of
potential will resist the vending machine mentality of contemporary retail
oriented Internet technology. In a market that size, there's a lot of room
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