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It is better
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John Sumser

Reality
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John Gall

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John Sumser

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Downturn Navigation

(March 12, 2001) What do you do in a downturn? Silly managers with limited experience fire people and cut back on marketing, sales and recruiting. Meanwhile, the economy appears to be absorbing the laid off folks as fast as the silly managers can produce them.

Of all of the things we have witnessed during the dawn of the internet and the growth of the cable industry, the current media-induced recession is the most egregious. With unemployment rates holding steady and job growth remaining positive, the notion that we are in a downturn is suspect. While there is certainly a price to be paid for the NASDAQ bubble, recession, as we have known it, is not possible in the current demographic environment.

In addition to the oft-cited skills imbalances, labor shortages are a reality that goes well beyond traditional definitions of economic health or sickness. The simplest fact in our current reality is that national birth rates are below the replacement level. Combined with a pronounced shortage of managerial aged employees and a lack of info tech training in the blue collar segment, the labor shortage makes it extremely unlikely that current economic conditions will ever produce a full recession.

Media sensitive employers and advertisers are cutting back as the result of the way this story is being reported. With no OJ, no Clinton and no Princess Di, the cable stations must find some drama to attract viewership. The snide coverage of last week's employment figures often included statements like "The unemployment rate is steady, so far", as if we were headed with certainty to a recession of old school magnitude.

From our perspective, it's a market making opportunity. The best advice when there is a hint of an economic downturn is to increase sales and marketing budgets. The correct response to a decline in response rates is to make more calls. The correct response to layoffs is to hurry over and pick the best available talent.

- John Sumser

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